← EFL League One 2022-23 · Tue, Jan 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 38% | 39% | 2.53 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 31% | 34% | 3.08 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 47' | 🟨 | Toto Nsiala · Fleetwood Town |
| 57' | 🟨 | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 63' | 🟨 | Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 68' | 🟥 | Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | Joe Pigott · Portsmouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 449.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1408.79 | 1490.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.19 | -19.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.30 | 26.75 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |