← EFL League One 2022-23 · Mon, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 65% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +8% |
| Accrington win | 14% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Derby −1.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Tom Barkhuizen · Derby |
| 11' | 🟨 | Korey Smith · Derby |
| 13' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 16' | ⚽ | Conor Hourihane · Derby |
| 21' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Accrington |
| 29' | 🟨 | Louie Sibley · Derby |
| 35' | 🟨 | Baba Fernandes · Accrington |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | David McGoldrick · Derby |
| 46' | ⚽ | Tom Barkhuizen · Derby |
| 62' | 🟨 | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 79' | 🟥 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| William Osula · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 123.00 | 3745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1560.23 | 1376.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.88 | -4.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.54 | 25.32 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |