← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 38% | 51% | 2.59 | value: +31% |
| Forest Green win | 31% | 24% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green +0.25 | 55% | 1.74 |
| Port Vale +0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Kyle McAllister · Forest Green |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tom Pett · Port Vale |
| 27' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Forest Green |
| 43' | 🟨 | Baily Cargill · Forest Green |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gavin Massey · Port Vale |
| 70' | 🟨 | Malvind Benning · Port Vale |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ademipo Odubeko · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Casey · Forest Green |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ellis Harrison · Port Vale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dennis Politic · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Bolt New Lawn |
| coach days | 184.00 | 730.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1334.96 | 1448.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.19 | 24.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 27.13 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |