← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Dec 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 39% | 28% | 2.47 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 32% | 47% | 2.98 | value: +41% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Forest Green −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Josh March · Forest Green |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oliver Casey · Forest Green |
| 78' | 🟨 | Harry Boyes · Forest Green |
| 89' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Forest Green |
| 89' | ⚽ | Saikou Janneh · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dylan McGeouch · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟥 | Corey O'Keeffe · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Connor Wickham · Forest Green |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Bolt New Lawn |
| coach days | 155.00 | 1067.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 4.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1338.15 | 1376.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.31 | -9.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 57.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 13.92 | 13.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.70 | 26.67 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |