← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 30% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Derby +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 41' | ⚽ | Louie Barry · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 43' | ⚽ | Haydon Roberts · Derby |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 46' | 🟨 | Dean Lewington · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 53' | ⚽ | James Collins · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jake Rooney · Derby |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joe Wildsmith · Derby |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| coach days | 468.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1502.40 | 1533.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.94 | 10.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 27.04 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |