← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 49% | 43% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.55 | fair |
| Oxford win | 23% | 31% | 4.26 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oxford −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jordan Williams · Bolton |
| 25' | ⚽ | Djavan Anderson · Oxford |
| 29' | 🟨 | Gatlin O'Donkor · Oxford |
| 31' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marcus McGuane · Oxford |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Dion Charles · Bolton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Steve Seddon · Oxford |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alex Gorrin · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | University of Bolton Stadium |
| Steve Seddon · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 850.00 | 1703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1543.19 | 1497.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.12 | -2.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |