← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Madden
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 43% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Accrington win | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Accrington +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mitchell Clark · Accrington |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ethan Hamilton · Accrington |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Harvey Rodgers · Bolton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Accrington |
| 71' | ⚽ | Kieran Lee · Bolton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| coach days | 3673.00 | 843.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1408.81 | 1531.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.22 | -13.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.82 |
| league points | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 24.80 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |