← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 49% | 62% | 1.97 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.42 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 23% | 16% | 4.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Port Vale −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Myles Peart-Harris · Forest Green |
| 26' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Forest Green |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 36' | 🟨 | William Forrester · Port Vale |
| 37' | ⚽ | Baily Cargill · Forest Green |
| 45' | 🟨 | Connor Wickham · Forest Green |
| 74' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Forest Green |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jordan Moore-Taylor · Forest Green |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ademipo Odubeko · Port Vale |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luke McGee · Forest Green |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Ellis Harrison · Port Vale |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Wilson · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 652.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1421.89 | 1349.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.51 | -33.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 24.27 |
| state index | -0.26 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |