← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 41% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.51 |
| Over | 37% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Shrewsbury |
| 29' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Fleetwood Town |
| 30' | ⚽ | Tom Bayliss · Shrewsbury |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marko Maroši · Shrewsbury |
| 52' | 🟨 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 87' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Fleetwood Town |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tom Bayliss · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Leahy · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 348.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1395.49 | 1439.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.66 | 3.57 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.56 |
| league points | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 26.31 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |