← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter win | 37% | 41% | 2.64 | value: +8% |
| Oxford win | 34% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Oxford +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Archie Collins · Exeter |
| 12' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 21' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
| 31' | ⚽ | Sam Long · Oxford |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Oxford |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Oxford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jevani Brown · Exeter |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Exeter |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sonny Cox · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 14.00 | 1689.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1464.99 | 1489.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.68 | -25.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.82 | 26.04 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |