← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 56% | 53% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.31 | fair |
| Accrington win | 21% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Accrington −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Accrington |
| 24' | ⚽ | Niall Ennis · Plymouth |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 38' | 🟥 | Dan Scarr · Plymouth |
| 38' | 🟥 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sam Cosgrove · Plymouth |
| 39' | 🟨 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 56' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sam Cosgrove · Plymouth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Niall Ennis · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| Brendon Galloway · Plymouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 311.00 | 3659.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1579.69 | 1432.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.24 | 14.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |