← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 45% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Teddy Bishop · Lincoln |
| 14' | ⚽ | Teddy Bishop · Lincoln |
| 30' | 🟨 | Toto Nsiala · Fleetwood Town |
| 32' | ⚽ | Paddy Lane · Fleetwood Town |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sean Roughan · Lincoln |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tom Hopper · Lincoln |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jay Lynch · Fleetwood Town |
| 60' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 81' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Gerard Garner · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1091.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1433.49 | 1363.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.10 | 10.16 |
| eye test v1 | -1.39 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.04 | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |