← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 65% | 28% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 31% | 4.45 | value: +38% |
| Barnsley win | 13% | 41% | 7.86 | value: +220% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Barnsley −1 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jack Aitchison · Barnsley |
| 59' | 🟨 | Callum Styles · Barnsley |
| 68' | 🟨 | George Edmundson · Ipswich |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 71' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 75' | ⚽ | Callum Styles · Barnsley |
| 81' | 🟨 | Matthew Wolfe · Barnsley |
| 87' | 🟨 | James Norwood · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 269.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1573.88 | 1444.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.74 | -7.06 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | — |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 23.98 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |