← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 47% | 49% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.67 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 26% | 29% | 3.74 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Oxford +0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Ellis Chapman · Cheltenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kyle Joseph · Oxford |
| 63' | ⚽ | Taylor Perry · Cheltenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Billy Bodin · Oxford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Billy Bodin · Oxford |
| 74' | 🟥 | Billy Bodin · Oxford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Caleb Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Will Ferry · Cheltenham |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Norton · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Lloyd · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ellis Chapman · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ellis Chapman · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 87.00 | 1640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1403.84 | 1505.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.71 | -33.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.93 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |