← EFL League One 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 42% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Burton win | 30% | 35% | 3.24 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cambridge −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Calum Butcher · Burton |
| 1' | ⚽ | Gassan Ahadme · Burton |
| 10' | 🟥 | Jonny Smith · Burton |
| 19' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Burton |
| 27' | 🟨 | Gassan Ahadme · Burton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 38' | 🟨 | Paul Digby · Cambridge |
| 41' | ⚽ | John Brayford · Burton |
| 51' | 🟨 | John Brayford · Burton |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 67' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| Gassan Ahadme · Burton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 79' | ⚽ | Liam O'Neil · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Lankester · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Borthwick-Jackson · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 969.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1423.92 | 1347.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.16 | -45.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 60.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.48 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 24.70 |
| state index | -0.30 | -1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |