← EFL League One 2022-23 · Tue, Aug 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 48% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.69 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 25% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Fleetwood Town |
| 36' | 🟨 | Dan N'Lundulu · Cheltenham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Fleetwood Town |
| 68' | 🟨 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cian Hayes · Fleetwood Town |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lewis Freestone · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Garner · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toto Nsiala · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Adshead · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 288.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1361.57 | 1388.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.03 | -36.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.49 |
| league points | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.77 | -1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |