← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A Backhouse
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds win | 65% | 46% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.67 | value: +24% |
| Portsmouth win | 14% | 27% | 7.35 | value: +101% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Portsmouth −1 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.