← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 47% | 35% | 2.05 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 27% | 42% | 3.64 | value: +52% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge +0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Cheltenham +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 23' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lewis Simper · Cambridge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam O'Neil · Cambridge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 53' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Cheltenham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Charlie Raglan · Cheltenham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 82' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Cheltenham |
| 82' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| William Boyle · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 850.00 | 1337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1413.40 | 1415.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.39 | -16.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 57.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |