← EFL League One 2021-22 · Tue, Apr 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 36% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Wigan win | 32% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Wigan +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.47 |
| Over | 34% | 2.87 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Kelland Watts · Wigan |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 42' | 🟨 | Luke Woolfenden · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ | Will Keane · Wigan |
| 60' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Wigan |
| 61' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 71' | 🟨 | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 86' | ⚽ | Will Keane · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyreeq Bakinson · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 139.00 | 534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1520.95 | 1588.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.99 | -7.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.78 |
| league points | 65.00 | 87.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 27.99 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 304.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |