← EFL League One 2021-22 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 59% | 49% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +8% |
| Doncaster win | 15% | 22% | 6.50 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Doncaster −1 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Shrewsbury −1 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |