← EFL League One 2021-22 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 45% | 51% | 2.14 | value: +10% |
| Accrington win | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Accrington −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mitchell Clark · Accrington |
| 42' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Declan John · Bolton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jay Rich-Baghuelou · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jay Rich-Baghuelou · Accrington |
| 65' | 🟨 | Xavier Amaechi · Bolton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jón Daði Böðvarsson · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jordan Williams · Bolton |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | University of Bolton Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 82' | 🟥 | Rosaire Longelo · Accrington |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jón Daði Böðvarsson · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 656.00 | 3486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1496.79 | 1407.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.06 | -11.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 64.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 25.04 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |