← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Handley
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Ipswich win | 41% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +9% |
| Shrewsbury win | 29% | 31% | 3.45 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Shrewsbury +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Ipswich +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.54 |
| Over | 37% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |