← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Handley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 41% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +9% |
| Shrewsbury win | 29% | 31% | 3.45 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Ipswich +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.54 |
| Over | 37% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | James Norwood · Ipswich |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 29' | 🟨 | Luke Leahy · Shrewsbury |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Shrewsbury |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Ipswich |
| 66' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Shrewsbury |
| 75' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Ipswich |
| 75' | 🟥 | Cameron Burgess · Ipswich |
| 84' | ⚽ | Shaun Whalley · Shrewsbury |
| 86' | 🟨 | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |
| George Nurse · Shrewsbury |
| 87' | 🟨 | Janoi Donacien · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 524.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1463.09 | 1528.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.27 | 3.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 48.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 26.93 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |