← EFL League One 2021-22 · Tue, Apr 5, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 72% | 65% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.15 | value: +10% |
| Crewe win | 9% | 14% | 12.00 | value: +67% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crewe −1.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −1.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand