← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 45% | 40% | 2.12 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 28% | 37% | 3.48 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.82 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 48' | ⚽ | Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 66' | ⚽ | William Boyle · Cheltenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ross Sykes · Accrington |
| 79' | 🟨 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Ellis Chapman · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ross Sykes · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ross Sykes · Accrington |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| William Boyle · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Wright · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | William Boyle · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3470.00 | 1309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1405.88 | 1432.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.08 | -2.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 26.19 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |