← EFL League One 2021-22 · Tue, Mar 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R Joyce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds win | 63% | 54% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.30 | fair |
| Accrington win | 15% | 23% | 6.71 | value: +52% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sheffield Weds −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Accrington −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.