← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 71% | 67% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.38 | value: +3% |
| Crewe win | 10% | 13% | 9.87 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Sunderland −1.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
| 66' | 🟨 | Zac Williams · Crewe |
| 68' | 🟨 | Josh Lundstram · Crewe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bailey Wright · Sunderland |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tom Lowery · Crewe |
| 84' | ⚽ | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 89' | ⚽ | Patrick Roberts · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leon Dajaku · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 39.00 | 1896.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1539.40 | 1318.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.14 | -14.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 63.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 23.51 | — |
| state index | 0.36 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |