← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 41% | 33% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| Charlton win | 29% | 42% | 3.40 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Accrington −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Jayden Stockley · Charlton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 28' | ⚽ | Rosaire Longelo · Accrington |
| 32' | ⚽ | Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 38' | 🟨 | Korede Adedoyin · Accrington |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harry Pell · Accrington |
| 38' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Charlton |
| 63' | 🟥 | Tommy Leigh · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Washington · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| coach days | 3449.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1415.69 | 1449.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.96 | -48.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -1.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 46.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.38 | -1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |