← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Wigan win | 62% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 14% | 7.01 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wigan −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand