← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 51% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Accrington win | 23% | 23% | 4.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Accrington −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Clark Robertson · Portsmouth |
| 16' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Portsmouth |
| 21' | 🟥 | Marcus Harness · Portsmouth |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sean Raggett · Portsmouth |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mahlon Romeo · Portsmouth |
| 47' | 🟨 | Harry Pell · Accrington |
| 56' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Portsmouth |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ryan Tunnicliffe · Portsmouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Michael Nottingham · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 369.00 | 3442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1513.72 | 1426.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.39 | 9.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 51.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 59.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |