← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Oxford win | 59% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
| Burton win | 19% | 24% | 5.10 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Burton −1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Oxford −1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand