← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Wright
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 61% | 47% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 16% | 29% | 6.50 | value: +88% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Cheltenham −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Joseph Olowu · Doncaster |
| 16' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 31' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Cheltenham |
| 33' | 🟨 | Charlie Raglan · Cheltenham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Doncaster |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ben Williams · Cheltenham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Doncaster |
| 48' | 🟥 | Adam Clayton · Doncaster |
| 69' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Cheltenham |
| 75' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Jonny-Rocks Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Matthew Pollock · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1281.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1423.78 | 1336.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.50 | 19.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -1.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 54.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -2.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |