← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Purkiss
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 49% | 38% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 23% | 38% | 4.71 | value: +77% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Wigan −0.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.88 |
| Over | 46% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Bailey Wright · Sunderland |
| 8' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Sunderland |
| 38' | 🟨 | Max Power · Wigan |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Magennis · Wigan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | Elliot Embleton · Sunderland |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alex Pritchard · Sunderland |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 84' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Wigan |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | DW Stadium |
| Tom Naylor · Wigan |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 482.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1596.07 | 1508.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.85 | -46.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 66.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.19 | 25.36 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 172.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |