← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 61% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.44 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 16% | 22% | 6.00 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oxford −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 9' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 10' | 🟨 | James Brophy · Cambridge |
| 21' | 🟨 | Harrison Dunk · Cambridge |
| 35' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gavin Whyte · Oxford |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Cambridge |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sam Baldock · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam O'Neil · Cambridge |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1458.00 | 787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1561.53 | 1445.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.34 | 9.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 70.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.81 |
| league points | 59.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |