← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 37% | 33% | 2.62 | fair |
| Wycombe win | 36% | 42% | 2.76 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Wycombe +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.90 |
| Under | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Wycombe |
| 20' | ⚽ | Korede Adedoyin · Accrington |
| 22' | ⚽ | Sullay Kaikai · Wycombe |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jordan Obita · Wycombe |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ross Sykes · Accrington |
| 64' | ⚽ | Harry Pell · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ross Sykes · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mitchell Clark · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason McCarthy · Wycombe |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Dominic Gape · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3435.00 | 2735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1415.72 | 1518.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.96 | -38.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 69.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 43.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 58.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 28.76 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.24 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |