← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 52% | 55% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.78 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 23% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wycombe −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Cheltenham −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kion Etete · Cheltenham |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jordan Obita · Wycombe |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jordan Obita · Wycombe |
| 33' | ⚽ | Brandon Hanlan · Wycombe |
| 52' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kion Etete · Cheltenham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Wycombe |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Wycombe |
| 71' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 73' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wycombe | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Adams Park |
| Joe Jacobson · Wycombe |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jack Grimmer · Wycombe |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Wheeler · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2728.00 | 1267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1538.86 | 1429.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.71 | 25.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 54.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 24.35 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |