← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Boyeson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 36% | 40% | 2.64 | value: +5% |
| Oxford win | 35% | 36% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Oxford +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.89 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Jonathan Leko · Charlton |
| 21' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 23' | 🟨 | Diallang Jaiyesimi · Charlton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ben Purrington · Charlton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 29' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Oxford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Oxford |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sam Baldock · Oxford |
| 62' | 🟥 | Sean Clare · Charlton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ryan Inniss · Charlton |
| 63' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Valley |
| Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Albie Morgan · Charlton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Akin Famewo · Charlton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 141.00 | 1451.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 4.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1490.95 | 1536.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.03 | -11.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |