← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 43% | 54% | 2.23 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 28% | 22% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.82 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke McCormick · AFC Wimbledon |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · AFC Wimbledon |
| 35' | ⚽ | Alex Pritchard · Sunderland |
| 44' | 🟨 | Luke McCormick · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carl Winchester · Sunderland |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 57' | 🟨 | Paul Osew · AFC Wimbledon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Sunderland |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ethan Chislett · AFC Wimbledon |
| 75' | 🟨 | Corry Evans · Sunderland |
| 80' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Bailey Wright · Sunderland |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ayoub Assal · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke McCormick · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luke McCormick · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 376.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1385.69 | 1525.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.58 | -52.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.55 |
| league points | 30.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.18 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |