← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 43% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 28% | 31% | 3.43 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Luke McNally · Oxford |
| 10' | ⚽ | Michael Jacobs · Portsmouth |
| 16' | 🟥 | Joe Morrell · Portsmouth |
| 24' | 🟨 | Michael Jacobs · Portsmouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Portsmouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Denver Hume · Portsmouth |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · Oxford |
| 80' | 🟨 | Herbie Kane · Oxford |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 82' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gavin Bazunu · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Raggett · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Tunnicliffe · Portsmouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nathan Holland · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1437.00 | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1562.87 | 1489.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.37 | -33.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 50.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |