← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 52% | 47% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.93 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 23% | 27% | 4.30 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Gillingham +0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Billy Bodin · Oxford |
| 11' | 🟨 | Oliver Lee · Gillingham |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 18' | 🟨 | Mustapha Carayol · Gillingham |
| 18' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 47' | 🟨 | Pontus Dahlberg · Gillingham |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 62' | ⚽ | Danny Lloyd · Gillingham |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Robbie McKenzie · Gillingham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Anthony Forde · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 28.00 | 1430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1364.70 | 1547.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.56 | -20.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.37 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 19.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.60 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |