← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 52% | 38% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +4% |
| Gillingham win | 21% | 34% | 4.60 | value: +57% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Ipswich +0.75 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | James Norwood · Ipswich |
| 11' | 🟨 | Janoi Donacien · Ipswich |
| 13' | ⚽ | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 23' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Ipswich |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stuart O'Keefe · Gillingham |
| 69' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Gillingham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Daniel Phillips · Gillingham |
| 73' | 🟥 | Daniel Phillips · Gillingham |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| coach days | 7.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1400.96 | 1477.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.48 | 10.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.62 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.83 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 27.23 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |