← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe win | 54% | 37% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.77 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 20% | 40% | 5.00 | value: +102% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Morecambe −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Aidan Barlow · Doncaster |
| 26' | ⚽ | Dan Gardner · Doncaster |
| 29' | ⚽ | Joseph Olowu · Doncaster |
| 52' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jordy Hiwula · Doncaster |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jonathan Obika · Morecambe |
| 84' | 🟨 | Joseph Olowu · Doncaster |
| 85' | ⚽ | Toumani Diagouraga · Morecambe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jonah Ayunga · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Mazuma Stadium |
| coach days | 185.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1345.59 | 1342.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.99 | -27.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 26.00 |
| state index | -1.47 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |