← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Boyeson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 38% | 41% | 2.51 | value: +3% |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 35% | 34% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Milton Keynes Dons +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Warren O'Hora · Lincoln |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Chris Maguire · Lincoln |
| 43' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 43' | 🟨 | Scott Twine · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 59' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 60' | 🟨 | Liam Bridcutt · Lincoln |
| 75' | ⚽ | Matt O'Riley · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 79' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 81' | 🟨 | Timothy Eyoma · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chris Maguire · Lincoln |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Scott Twine · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 847.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1431.67 | 1503.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.12 | 1.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 22.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |