← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham win | 40% | 30% | 2.39 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 32% | 45% | 3.01 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Liam Bridcutt · Lincoln |
| 69' | 🟨 | Charlie Raglan · Cheltenham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Teddy Bishop · Lincoln |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alfie May · Cheltenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andy Williams · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Teddy Bishop · Lincoln |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Jonny-Rocks Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Matty Blair · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1197.00 | 832.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1429.51 | 1429.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.81 | -55.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.35 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |