← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 60% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.26 | fair |
| Cambridge win | 17% | 24% | 6.00 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Charlton −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Harrison Dunk · Cambridge |
| 29' | 🟨 | Adam May · Cambridge |
| 30' | ⚽ | Conor Washington · Charlton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Akin Famewo · Charlton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jayden Stockley · Charlton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paul Digby · Cambridge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Charlton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Conor Washington · Charlton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jason Pearce · Charlton |
| 89' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Valley |
| Conor Washington · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 71.00 | 710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1502.30 | 1419.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.16 | 4.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |