← EFL League One 2021-22 · Tue, Nov 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 51% | 45% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Crewe win | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Crewe −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Christopher Long · Crewe |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · AFC Wimbledon |
| 35' | ⚽ | Ollie Palmer · AFC Wimbledon |
| 44' | 🟨 | Luke Murphy · Crewe |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Ollie Palmer · AFC Wimbledon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Billy Sass-Davies · Crewe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · AFC Wimbledon |
| 89' | ⚽ | Chris Porter · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ayoub Assal · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ayoub Assal · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Zac Williams · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 295.00 | 1787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1397.64 | 1380.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.71 | -17.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.40 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |