← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham win | 47% | 40% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 26% | 33% | 3.75 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham −0.5 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Michael Smith · Rotherham |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 41' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Rotherham |
| 46' | 🟨 | Aiden McGeady · Sunderland |
| 53' | ⚽ | Michael Ihiekwe · Rotherham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aiden McGeady · Sunderland |
| 56' | 🟥 | Aiden McGeady · Sunderland |
| 64' | 🟨 | Corry Evans · Sunderland |
| 70' | 🟨 | Shane Ferguson · Rotherham |
| 71' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Michael Smith · Rotherham |
| 73' | ⚽ | Michael Smith · Rotherham |
| 88' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1824.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1551.22 | 1588.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.60 | -8.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.18 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |