← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe win | 43% | 33% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 27% | 40% | 3.52 | value: +41% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Wycombe +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Danny Andrew · Fleetwood Town |
| 24' | ⚽ | Brandon Hanlan · Wycombe |
| 30' | ⚽ | Adebayo Akinfenwa · Wycombe |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ryan Tafazolli · Wycombe |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Wycombe |
| 60' | ⚽ | Joe Garner · Fleetwood Town |
| 64' | ⚽ | Shayden Morris · Fleetwood Town |
| 76' | 🟨 | Joe Jacobson · Wycombe |
| 80' | 🟨 | Josh Scowen · Wycombe |
| 88' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 23 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 271.00 | 2616.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1452.84 | 1561.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.85 | 31.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 71.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| league points | 13.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 58.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |