← EFL League One 2021-22 · Tue, Oct 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 49% | 53% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| Accrington win | 24% | 25% | 4.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Charlton −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Harry Pell · Accrington |
| 26' | 🟨 | Pape Souaré · Charlton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Albie Morgan · Charlton |
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | David Morgan · Charlton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Charlton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Harry Pell · Accrington |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ethan Hamilton · Accrington |
| 69' | 🟨 | Chris Gunter · Charlton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Charlton |
| 84' | 🟨 | David Morgan · Accrington |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Valley |
| Sam Sherring · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 18.00 | 3305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1465.71 | 1420.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.00 | -28.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 26.56 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |