← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 38% | 38% | 2.54 | fair |
| Bolton win | 32% | 38% | 3.05 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Wigan +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Will Keane · Wigan |
| 27' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jordan Cousins · Wigan |
| 50' | ⚽ | James McClean · Wigan |
| 56' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Wigan |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ricardo Santos · Bolton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Callum Lang · Wigan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tom Pearce · Wigan |
| 81' | ⚽ | James McClean · Wigan |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gavin Massey · Wigan |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | University of Bolton Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 472.00 | 349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.23 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1453.15 | 1522.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.42 | 38.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 27.89 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 8.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |