← EFL League One 2021-22 · Fri, Oct 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 43% | 39% | 2.26 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 29% | 40% | 3.38 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Burton −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Liam Gibson · Morecambe |
| 5' | ⚽ | Thomas O'Connor · Burton |
| 14' | ⚽ | Conor Shaughnessy · Burton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Burton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Thomas O'Connor · Burton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Harrison Chapman · Burton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Burton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Michael Mancienne · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Gibson · Morecambe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 287.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1449.79 | 1413.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.70 | 21.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.20 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 60.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 13.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.63 | -2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.66 | 27.50 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |